Are piglet prices rational hog price forecasts?
构建了一个简单模型，用仔猪价格预测三个月后的生猪价格，并利用1982-1992年北欧四国的数据检验，结果支持生猪生产者在定价时持有理性预期的假设。
Abstract In this paper a simple model is developed in which the piglet price serves as a forecast for the hog price 3 months ahead. The model is tested on data from Northern Europe, viz. Norway, Sweden, Denmark and Finland during the period 1982‐1992. The empirical results lend strong support to the hypothesis that hog producers hold rational expectations when pricing the piglets. Thus, the weight adjusted piglet price typically represents an unbiased (conditional) forecast with unsystematic errors for the hog price one quarter later.