Process Modelling under Uncertainty: Simulation Analysis of Indian Steel
构建了印度钢铁工业的过程模型，用概率蒙特卡洛模拟分析不确定性，发现节能技术对行业绩效影响不显著，并展示了用微机进行大规模模拟的方法。
AbstractThe process model of the Indian iron and steel industry is presented, with particular focus on energy use and conservation possibilities. Uncertainty problems in the industry are analysed by using probabilistic Monte-Carlo simulations, where model parameters are assumed to be stochastic and distributed normally. Instead of the usual random sampling methods for generating inputs into the simulations, a stratified (Latin hypercube) sampling method is used. Statistical analysis of the output results shows that, for the steel industry in India, energy-conservation technologies would have insignificant impact on performance. A further contribution of the paper is the use of a microcomputer for large-scale Monte-Carlo simulations.Keywords: productionsimulation