Flexible Exchange Rates, Prices, and the Role of "News": Lessons from the 1970s
分析1970年代浮动汇率经验，区分预期与非预期事件，发现“新闻”是影响汇率的关键因素，并探讨汇率与价格的关系，用资产市场方法解释购买力平价偏离。
This paper analyzes the key issues and lessons from the experience with flexible exchange rates during the 1970s. It analyzes the efficiency of the foreign-exchange market and the volatility of exchange rates, as well as the relationships between exchange rates and interest rates. A key distinction is made between anticipated and unanticipated events, and it is shown that the key factor affecting exchange rates has been "news." The analysis then proceeds to analyze the relationship between exchange rates and prices. The deviations from purchasing power parities are being interpreted in terms of the modern asset-market approach to the exchange rate.