The effect of the quota policy on the cattle stock and its composition
通过模拟欧洲牛肉市场的季度计量经济模型，评估牛奶配额政策对牛群存栏量和性别结构的影响，发现所有情景下母牛存栏减少而公牛存栏增加。
The effect of the milk quota policy on the cattle stock and its composition, in the Ee, is evaluated by simulation within the context of a quarterly econometric model for the European beef market. The farmers are assumed to be price-takers maximising returns from their cattle herd by deciding on its composition, by sex, and on its rate of growth through the number of total calves born. The price-taking assumption allows us to treat the milk quota policy as equivalent to general milk price reduction. Four scenarios are entertained for our simulations; in the first a 10% permanent fall in the (real) price of milk is stipulated; the second scenario assumes that the price of milk falls initially by 10%, followed by five annual 1% reductions. The third scenario assumes that the fall in the price of milk (10%) is only temporary lasting for two years, and finally the fourth simulation is based on the assumption of a 10% permanent reduction in the ‘real’ price of milk, accompanied by a 10% permanent increase of the ‘real’ price of cereals. In all cases, the cow herd declines whilst the stock of male animals expands.