History as Reflected in Capital Markets: The Case of World War II
研究1928至1948年间欧洲五国政府债券在瑞士交易所的价格变动，发现二战爆发和主权变更等事件在债券价格中有明显反映，但德国投降等历史学家认为重要的事件却未体现。
Historical events are reflected in asset prices. We analyze movements in the price of bonds issued by five European governments and traded on the Swiss bourse between 1928 and 1948, with special attention to the war years. Some war events that are generally considered crucial are clearly reflected in government bond prices. This holds, in particular, for the official outbreak of the war and changes in national sovereignty. But other events to which historians attach great importance are not reflected in bond prices, most prominently Germany's capitulation in 1945.