Computing bounds on project duration distributions for stochastic PERT networks
针对活动工期为已知离散独立随机变量的PERT模型，提出一种基于网络节点最长距离条件的方法，计算项目工期分布函数的下界和上界，并扩展了Kleindorfer上界，通过数值例子验证了方法。
We consider the PERT model with activities whose durations are random variables with known discrete independent distributions. We develop an algorithm to compute lower and upper bounds for the distribution function of the project duration of the stochastic PERT network. The algorithm is based on conditioning on the longest distances to nodes in the network. In addition, we develop an extension of the Kleindorfer's upper bound. We evaluate the method developed in this paper with some numerical examples. © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Naval Research Logistics 47: 559–580, 2000