Meat and milk self‐sufficiency in Asia: forecast trends and implications
预测2000-2010年亚洲多国反刍肉、非反刍肉和奶制品的生产与消费趋势，分析自给自足变化及其对区域贸易和粮食安全的影响。
Abstract Recent structural changes in dietary patterns in Asia resulting from economic development are placing increasing pressure on the existing production systems in the region‐particularly those systems producing ruminant meat, non‐ruminant meat and milk. This has significant policy implications for the countries in the region in terms of self‐sufficiency goals in these commodities and the associated inter‐and intra‐regional trade opportunities in the future. Forecasts of ruminant meat, non‐ruminant meat and milk production and consumption for selected Asian countries between the years 2000 and 2010 revealed the following: China, Pakistan and Viet Nam are likely to be self‐sufficient with respect to ruminant meat; Malaysia is likely to continue to be a net importer of ruminant meat; India and Malaysia will be more than self‐sufficient with respect to non‐runvinant meat with the converse being true for Pakistan; and India, Laos and Pakistan will be self‐sufficient with respect to milk production with the possibility of Indonesia, Thailand and Cambodia becoming self‐sufficient if the current trends continue. Structural changes in the early 1980s generally resulted in higher average annual growth rates of production‐particularly in non‐ruminant meat production. Thus forecasts of ruminant meat production and consumption by 2000 using the medium‐term average annual growth rates for production present a more favourable outcome in terms of self‐sufficiency for countries such as Bangladesh, the Philippines and Viet Nam but a less favourable outcome for countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Laos and India. Similar forecasts for non‐ruminant meat indicated an improvement in the long‐term non‐ruminant self‐sufficiency estimates for most cases‐particularly for Bangladesh, China and Cambodia. Intensification and commercialisation of meat production systems have increased meat self‐sufficiency in a number of countries but often at the expense of grain self‐sufficiency. Given these trends, the impact of trade liberalisation measures on livestock production in the region and inter‐and intra‐regional trade of livestock commodities and grain is likely to be significant.