John Craig and the Probability of History: From the Death of Christ to the Birth of Laplace
重新解读1699年克雷格关于历史事件概率的著作，指出其证词概率公式等价于后验比率的逻辑斯蒂模型，并讨论了他预测基督再临的尝试，最后用1882年拉普拉斯出生数据拟合该模型。
Abstract In 1699 John Craig published an underappreciated book on the probability of historical events. A new interpretation of Craig's work is offered, and it is argued that his formula for the probability of testimony was tantamount to a logistic model for the posterior odds. A modern model for the transmission of evidence is given that is qualitatively similar to Craig's, and Craig's attempt to date the Second Coming of Christ is discussed. Finally, Craig's model is fit to more modern data (from 1882) on the birth date of Laplace.