Trying Out for the Team: Do Exhibitions Matter? Evidence From the National Football League
针对NFL季前赛无意义的观点，本文用锦标赛模型分析1970-1991年数据，发现季前赛结果反映球队劳动力市场竞争，且与常规赛成绩正相关。
Abstract A recent article in Sports Illustrated argues that the National Football League (NFL) preseason schedule should be eliminated because the games are meaningless, feature subpar players, and are of no interest to fans. In this article we challenge this view, using statistical techniques to analyze both the outcome of preseason games and their value as a predictor of regular season performance. Our analysis is based on the application of a rank-order tournament model to the NFL labor market. The model explains preseason results in terms of the competition for positions on teams. Two implications are that the outcome of preseason games should reflect the labor market characteristics of the participating teams and that a team's preseason record should be positively related to its regular season record. Both of these hypotheses are consistent with our analysis of NFL data from 1970 through 1991.