How Subjective Beliefs about HIV Infection Affect Life-Cycle Fertility
利用马拉维农村数据，估计了一个考虑HIV感染信念的生命周期生育模型，发现HIV使平均生育率降低0.15个孩子，并模拟了母婴传播预防和HIV检测对生育的微弱影响。
Abstract This paper assesses the link between beliefs about HIV infection and fertility. I develop and estimate a dynamic discrete-choice life-cycle fertility model in which expectations about life horizon and child survival depend on perceived HIV infection. Using data containing beliefs on own status, I show that the presence of HIV reduces average lifetime fertility in rural Malawi by 0.15 births. Counterfactual policy simulations predict that prevention of mother-to-child transmission and HIV testing would have overall negligible impacts on fertility, although testing reduces the fertility of infected women, leading to a reduction in child mortality.