Asymmetric Cycles
构建了一个模型，其中新技术带来随机调整需求，快速调整可能导致生产率下降，且调整成本高使衰退持续，解释了周期的“陡峭”和“深度”非对称性。
I estimate a model in which new technology entails random adjustment needs. Rapid adjustments may cause measured productivity to decline. The slow-downs persist because adjustment is costly, and hence protracted. The model explains both the “steepness” and the “deepness” asymmetry of cycles. Adjustment costs amount to about 14% of output and technological inefficiency to about 28%. Firms abandon technologies long before they are perfected—current practice total factor productivity (TFP) is 20% below its maximal level. Copyright 2006, Wiley-Blackwell.