Modeling international trade flows and market shares for agricultural commodities: a modified Armington procedure for rice
研究修正了阿明顿程序在农业贸易分析中的假设，利用稻米贸易数据发现单一常数弹性假设不适用，修正后的模型显示稻米出口市场竞争激烈且出口国市场份额变化与进口预算支出变化相关。
ABSTRACT The Armington procedure (AP) has become increasingly popular in agricultural trade analyses. However, some arguments have arisen concerning the relevance of using the procedure for such analyses. This study examines the assumptions commonly made when using the Armington procedure and suggests modifications for agricultural trade analyses. Results from models utilizing rice‐trade data suggest that the assumptions of the single constant elasticity, in particular, may not be appropriate for analyzing agricultural trade. These results also suggest that, with proper modifications, the AP can be applied to agricultural trade. Further, results of a modified Armington procedure indicate that trade in rice exports is highly competitive and that changes in market shares of individual exporters are not independent of changes in budget expenditure allocated to imports.