International Recessions
研究了2008年危机前G7国家信贷增长和危机后经济同步收缩的现象，用两国模型证明悲观预期导致的全球流动性短缺能解释这些模式，并发现国际金融一体化降低危机频率但加剧其同步性。
Macro developments leading up to the 2008 crisis displayed an unprecedented degree of international synchronization. Before the crisis, all G7 countries experienced credit growth and, around the time of the Lehman bankruptcy, they all faced sharp and large contractions in both real and financial activity. Using a two-country model with financial frictions, we show that a global liquidity shortage induced by pessimistic self-fulfilling expectations can quantitatively generate patterns like those observed in the data. The model also suggests that crises are less frequent with more international financial integration but, when they hit, they are larger and more synchronized across countries.