Informational Cycles
证明，当需求未知且持续变化、投资有成本时，产出和投资会呈现周期性，这种周期由投资者随时间积累的需求信息变化驱动，称为信息周期。周期频率与盈利能力正相关、与利率负相关。
This paper shows that if demand is unknown and continuously changing and if investment is costly, then output and investment are cyclical. The cycles are generated by changes in information over time, as investors increase production and thus accumulate more information about demand. These are, therefore, informational cycles. The paper also shows that the frequency of cycles depends positively on profitability and negatively on the rate of interest.