Peasant farmer behavior and cereal technologies: Stochastic programming analysis in Niger
研究尼日尔小农在降雨不确定下如何通过顺序决策和品种组合适应生产风险，并评估谷物技术采用及价格下限政策的影响。
ABSTRACT Peasant farmers in Sahelian West Africa adjust to rainfall uncertainties in the agricultural season by making decisions sequentially as a function of the evolving rainfall patterns. Understanding such flexibilities in farmer decision‐making is central to technology introduction. This paper determines how sequential decision‐making under weather uncertainty affects the adoption and farm‐level effects of cereal technologies in Niger. The study also draws policy implications for a price floor to arrest the substantial fall in cereal prices in good rainfall years when farmers have more grains to sell. The methodology used is Discrete Stochastic Programming. This paper shows that the ability of peasant farmers to adapt cropping and resource‐management strategies to the rainfall patterns is the basis for their survival in this high‐risk environment. Model results show that by (a) carrying a portfolio mix of varieties of varying maturities, and (b) making sequential decisions based upon rainfall expectations, farmers can adapt to the production uncertainties. Breeding programs should therefore be diversified to develop not only early‐maturing cultivars, but also improved intermediate and long‐season varieties.