Shocking Escapes
修改了Sargent的通货膨胀模型，加入实际油价，研究外生供给冲击如何影响通胀时间序列，并分析这些冲击是否会触发类似逃离的时期。
Sargent's (1999) model of inflation is amended to include real oil prices and used to study the impact of exogenous supply shocks on the inflation time-series. We analyse whether these shocks can trigger escape-like episodes. We consider unobserved permanent shocks to the natural rate of unemployment and observed permanent shocks to the mean real oil price. Favourable shocks to unemployment decrease the time to first escape; that is, escapes tend to occur much sooner in the presence of these shocks. Shocks to the mean real oil price cause the economy to move quickly to its new equilibrium. Copyright 2006 Royal Economic Society.