Premarket Forecasting for New Consumer Durable Goods: Modeling Categorization, Elimination, and Consideration Phenomena
扩展了耐用消费品上市前预测模型，加入消费者分类和考虑过程参数，以汽车为例进行实证，帮助管理者优化定位和营销策略。
The authors extend previous models for premarket forecasting of new durable consumer goods by including parameters that reflect consumers’ categorization and consideration processes. They propose a model and measurement methodology, which they apply to the premarket forecasting of a new automobile. They describe empirical data collection, parameter estimation, managerial implications, validation issues, and future research needs. The extended model generates new managerial insights into positioning and marketing planning effectiveness, can be used to simulate the effects of changes in positioning strategy on consideration and choice, and provides more detailed information about why consumers consider or reject a new brand. The relevance of the categorization extension for other new product models that condition choice on a consideration set is also explored.