A Method for Estimating the Age-Specific Relative Risk of HIV Infection from AIDS Incidence Data
提出一种乘法模型，利用艾滋病发病数据同时估计HIV感染的年龄特异性相对风险和随时间变化的感染率，通过EM算法和平滑技术得到非参数估计，并用澳大利亚数据验证。
Using a multiplicative model, the age-specific relative risk of infection with the human immunodeficiency virus, HIV, and the time-dependent HIV infection rate can be estimated simultaneously from acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, AIDS, incidence data. Non-parametric estimates are arrived at by an EM-algorithm, with smoothing, applied to a back-projection model. The method gives estimates which lie on a smooth curve in accordance with strong prior expectations. The approach is illustrated with an application to Australian AIDS data. It is found that the HIV infection rate tends to be estimated more precisely when age is included as a covariate.