Commodity Investing
从投资者视角综述大宗商品文献，用新数据检验早期理论，发现正常交割延期理论对商品风险溢价的解释力弱，而仓储决策解释更一致；分析期货市场参与者行为，发现资金经理是动量交易者，生产商是反向交易者。
This article reviews the literature on commodities from the perspective of an investor. We re-examine some of the early papers in the literature using recent data and find that the empirical support for the theory of normal backwardation as an explanation for the commodity risk premium is weak and that the evidence is more consistent with storage decisions. We then review the behavior of the main participants in the commodity futures markets with a particular focus on their impact on prices. Although there is continued disagreement in the literature about the role of speculative activity, our results show that money managers are generally momentum (positive feedback) traders, while producers are net short and contrarian (negative feedback) traders. There is less evidence that index traders and swap dealers trade based on past futures returns.