Information Sources for Modeling the National Economy
本文提出经济建模应利用经验观察、商业报刊等非数值信息，系统动力学国家模型据此生成3-60年的经济周期及通胀、失业、滞胀现象，为经济动态研究提供新视角。
Abstract In modeling economic behavior all kinds of information should be used, not merely numerical data. Rich stores of information about economic structure and governing policies are available from mental data bases built up from experience and observation. The daily and weekly business press contains information from which a model can bridge from microstructure to macrobehavior. The System Dynamics National Model draws on all classes of information for its structure and policies. The National Model, without exogenous time series inputs, generates 3- to 7-year business cycles, 15- to 25-year capital cycles, 45- to 60-year long waves, and the processes of inflation, unemployment, and stagflation. Such a simulation model, based on a diversity of information sources, can shed new light on economic dynamics. Key Words: InformationModelingSystem dynamicsEconomicsDataInflation