Finding the Location of a Signal: A Bayesian Analysis
研究利用固定站点的方位角观测数据，通过贝叶斯方法绘制失事飞机应急发射机位置的后验概率地图，并开发了敏感性分析以剔除因地形反射导致的异常方位角。
Abstract We study the problem of determining the location of an emergency transmitter in a downed aircraft. The observations are bearings read at fixed stations. A Bayesian approach, yielding a posterior map of probable locations, seems reasonable in this situation. We therefore develop conjugate prior distributions for the von Mises distribution, which we use to compute a posterior distribution of the location. An approximation to the posterior distribution yields accurate, rapidly computable answers. A common problem with this kind of data is the possibility that signals will reflect off orographic terrain features, resulting in wild bearings. Such bearings can affect the posterior distribution severely. We develop a sensitivity analysis, based on the idea of predictive distribution, to reject wild bearings. The method, which is based on an asymptotic argument, nonetheless performs well in a small simulation study. When the preceding approximation is used, the sensitivity analysis is practical in terms of computation time.