Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?
利用1988至2014年超1亿出生数据，发现美国近期衰退前几个季度受孕增长率大幅快速下降，表明生育行为比以往认为的更具前瞻性，对短期经济预期变化敏感。
Abstract Many papers show that aggregate fertility is pro-cyclical over the business cycle. Using data on more than 100 million births from 1988 to 2014, we show that for recent recessions in the United States, there is a large and rapid fall in the growth rate of conceptions several quarters prior to economic decline. This newly emerging pattern appears in the aggregate data, as well as within individual states and in many European countries. Our findings suggest that fertility behaviour is more forward looking and sensitive to changes in short-run expectations about the economy than previously thought.