Forecasting Records
研究如何根据某项体育赛事的历史纪录来预测未来纪录，利用顺序统计量理论推导纪录的二元分布和协方差，并用广义最小二乘法进行参数估计和预测，以六项跑步赛事的世界纪录为例展示了15年期的预测。
Abstract We address the problem of forecasting the future records for an athletic event on the basis of the observed past records in that event. The records are viewed as realizations of a random process. The bivariate distribution and covariance of the record in any two periods is derived by a simple extension of the theory of order statistics. In the special case of a uniform, normal, or extreme-value parent, minimum-variance-linear-unbiased (MVLU) estimates of the parameters and “best” forecasts of future records may be obtained by generalized least squares. As an illustration, forecasts of the world record in six major running events are calculated for a 15-year period.