Fitting Population Dynamics Models to Count and Cull Data Using Sequential Importance Sampling
提出用序贯重要性抽样方法，结合其他种群的人口统计信息与目标种群的计数和捕杀数据，拟合种群动态模型，并以苏格兰马鹿为例评估不同捕杀策略。
Abstract For prudent wildlife management based on population dynamics models, it is important to incorporate parameter uncertainty into the management advice. Much parameter uncertainty originates when it is not possible to parameterize the population management model for a population of interest using data from that population alone. Instead, information about parameter values obtained from other populations of the same species, or even from similar species, must be used. In addition, the age structure of wildlife populations is generally unknown. We show how sequential importance sampling can be used for combining information on demographic processes, obtained from closely studied populations, with aggregated count and cull information from the population to be managed. We resample parameter sets using kernel smoothing, which has the effect of perturbing parameter values. We show how the fitted model can be used to explore alternative culling strategies for red deer in Scotland.