Does the Stock Market Rationally Reflect Fundamental Values?
检验了常用于评估投机市场效率的统计检验的效力，发现这些检验效力很低，市场估值可能长期大幅偏离现金流的理性预期现值，而不留下统计上可察觉的痕迹，这对金融经济学家和投机者都有启示。
This paper examines the power of statistical tests commonly used to evaluate the efficiency of speculative markets. It shows that these tests have very low power. Market valuations can differ substantially and persistently from the rational expectation of the present value of cash flows without leaving statistically discernible traces in the pattern of ex-post returns. This observation implies that speculation is unlikely to ensure rational valuations, since similar problems of identification plague both financial economists and would be speculators.