Unemployment at risk: the policy determinants of labour market exposure to economic shocks
研究了19个国家1985-2010年的数据，发现失业保险、积极劳动力市场政策和最低工资会影响劳动力市场对经济冲击的脆弱性，而降低税收楔子则能同时降低稳态失业和冲击暴露度。
This paper examines the vulnerability of labour markets to adverse economic shocks. We define labour market exposure as the cumulated amount of excess unemployment generated by a shock before unemployment returns to steady-state. We use a panel of 19 countries covering the period 1985–2010 to assess the influence of labour market policies on labour market exposure, which is also calculated country by country. We find that less generous unemployment insurance, more active labour market policies or a lower minimum wage imply a trade-off between average unemployment and labour market exposure, as they help low-skilled workers to get out of unemployment at the cost of increased vulnerability to adverse shocks. On the other hand, reducing the tax wedge is conducive to both lower steady-state unemployment and labour market exposure. — Alain de Serres and Fabrice Murtin