Unemployment persistence
利用英国家庭面板调查数据，估计男性失业发生率的动态面板模型，发现失业存在显著的状态依赖性，即过去的失业经历会增加未来失业风险，支持失业疤痕理论。
We estimate dynamic panel data models of unemployment incidence for men using the British Household Panel Survey. Econometric issues concerning unobserved indvidual heterogeneity, genuine state dependence, and the initial conditions problem are addressed in detail. We nd strong evidence of state dependence consistent with the scarring theory of unemploymentan individual's previous unemployment experience has implications for his future labour market experience. This suggests that policies reducing short run unemployment incidence will have longer-run effects by reducing the equilibrium or natural rate of unemployment.