An Experimental Analysis of Intertemporal Allocation Behavior
在不确定未来且时间范围不确定的随机环境中，通过实验检测跨期决策的行为规律，发现受试者对终止概率信息的反应在定性上是正确的。
Abstract If the future is uncertain, optimal intertemporal decisions rely on anticipating one's own optimal future behavior as is typical in dynamic programming. Our aim is to detect experimentally stylized facts about intertemporal decision making in a rich stochastic environment. Compared to previous experimental studies our experimental design is more complex since the time horizon is uncertain and termination probabilities have to be updated. In particular the decision task is non-stationary as in real life which seriously complicates the task of diagnosing behavioral regularities. In this study we give some illustrative results and provide some general perspectives. Our main result is that subjects’ reaction to information about termination probablilities are qualitatively correct.