Using Bayesian Updating to Improve Decisions under Uncertainty
指导管理者如何通过采用贝叶斯方法更准确地估计不确定结果的概率，从而改进决策过程，提升管理思维和分析质量。
Decision making requires managers to constantly estimate the probability of uncertain outcomes and update those estimates in light of new information. This article provides guidance to managers on how they can improve that process by more explicitly adopting a Bayesian approach. Clear understanding and application of the Bayesian approach leads to more accurate probability estimates, resulting in better informed decisions. More importantly, adopting a Bayesian approach, even informally, promises to improve the quality of managerial thinking, analysis, and decisions in a variety of additional ways.