U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate
运用时间序列计量方法分析1978-1942年月度数据，研究汇率对美国玉米价格、出口销售和装运的影响，发现1985年前后存在结构性变化，汇率影响在后期减弱。
Abstract Time series econometric methods are applied to monthly observational data over the period 1978‐1942 on real exchange rates, real corn prices, corn export sales, and corn export shipments for the United States. In‐sample fit and out‐of‐sample forecast results are used to discern whether exchange rates have elicited systematic responses in U.S. corn prices, sales and shipments, and whether the dynamic transmission mechanisms tying these variables together have changed over time. A structural break appears to have occurred in early 1985. No cointegration is found between exchange rates, price, sales, and shipments in either sub‐period. Influences are all short‐run or between stationary variables. The role of the exchange rate appears to have moderated in the post‐1985 period. Implications for policy analysis are discussed.