Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions
构建包含所有股东现金流的股息率指标，发现该指标对美国股票回报有强且稳定的预测能力，且通过多项稳健性检验。
This paper provides new evidence on the predictive power of dividend yields for U.S. aggregate stock returns.Following Miller and Modigliani, we construct a measure of the dividend yield that includes all cash flows to shareholders.We show that this alternative cash-flow yield has strong and stable predictive power for returns, and appears robust to a battery of tests that have been proposed in recent critiques of the predictability literature.