WHAT'S WRONG WITH SCULLY‐ESTIMATES OF A PLAYER'S MARGINAL REVENUE PRODUCT
指出,基于斯卡利方法估算的棒球球员边际收入产品显示球员被严重低估,但自由球员市场的激烈竞争表明这不可能。作者提出一种利用自由球员合同谈判市场信息的新估算方法,对流动性较低的球员市场得出了更合理的估值。
Estimates of baseball players' marginal revenue product, derived from the methodology introduced by Gerald Scully over twenty years ago in the American Economic Review, suggest that even the highest-paid players are grossly underpaid. But, given the fiercely competitive bidding process for free agents, it is hard to believe that owners can maintain salaries significantly below marginal revenue product. In this paper, an alternative approach for estimating a player's economic value is proposed. It uses market information gleaned from free agent contract negotiations. When applied to the less-mobile segment of the player market, this method yields much more reasonable estimates of players' marginal revenue products. Copyright 1999 by Oxford University Press.