Estimation of dynamic maize supply response in Zambia
用动态回归模型估计赞比亚玉米供给对价格调整的短期和长期弹性，发现短期供给弹性为0.54，长期为1.57，对制定农业价格政策有参考价值。
Abstract Increased attention on government pricing policies among African nations leads directly to a need for information about producer responses to price adjustments. This is especially true in the case of Zambian maize production. Maize is the most important crop grown in Zambia. It accounts for more than 80% of the value of marketed food crops, is heavily relied on for subsistence consumption, and is a staple food in the diet of all Zambian citizens. This paper analyzes the aggregate price response of maize supply in Zambia using a dynamic regression analysis. As a result, short, intermediate and long‐run multipliers/elasticities are measured which can be used to analyze the effect of future price policy changes. It was found that a second‐order rational distributed lag model best fits the available data. Estimates of short‐run elasticities of supply for maize and fertilizer prices are 0.54 and –0.48, respectively. The corresponding estimated long‐run elasticities are 1.57 and – 1.44.