A Re-Examination of Traditional Hypotheses about the Term Structure of Interest Rates
利用连续时间理性预期均衡框架，重新检验了利率期限结构的传统假设，包括预期假说和偏好栖息地理论，并修正了宏观经济学中常用的线性自适应利率预测模型。
The term structure of interest rates is an important subject to economists, and has a long history of traditions. This paper re-examines many of these traditional hypotheses while employing recent advances in the theory of valuation and contingent claims. We show how the Expectations Hypothesis and the Preferred Habitat Theory must be reformulated if they are to obtain in a continuous-time, rational-expectations equilibrium. We also modify the linear adaptive interest rate forecasting models, which are common to the macroeconomic literature, so that they will be consistent in the same framework.