Uncertain Population Forecasting
研究了人口预测中起始人口和未来生命率预测误差的传播，通过线性增长模型构建预测区间，并利用混合估计和稳健回归处理模型误设和专家意见。
Abstract Errors in population forecasts arise from errors in the jump-off population and errors in the predictions of future vital rates. The propagation of these errors through the linear (“Leslie”) growth model is studied, and prediction intervals for future population are developed. For U.S. national forecasts, the prediction intervals are compared with the U.S. Census Bureau's high—low intervals. To assess the accuracy of the predictions of future vital rates, we derive the predictions from a parametric statistical model and estimate the extent of model misspecification and errors in parameter estimates. Subjective, “expert” opinion, so important in real forecasting, is incorporated with the technique of mixed estimation. A robust regression model is used to assess the effects of model misspecification.