Resource Depletion Under Technological Uncertainty
研究新技术到来时间的不确定性如何影响可耗竭自然资源的开采速度，发现初始资源存量小时不确定性导致更快开采，大时则更保守。
The purpose of this paper is to study the effect of uncertainty in the arrival date of a new technology on the rate of depletion of an exhaustible natural resource.It is shown that under a.large class of circumstances uncertainty leads to a faster initial depletion rate if the initial resource stock is small and to greater conservation if it is large.A particular kind of certainty equivalence result is proved and the results of the paper are used to comment on possible interpretations of certain historical episodes of resource exhaustion.This content downloaded from 128.59.62.