Five Modern Lessons from a 55‐Year‐Old Technological Forecast
本文回顾了1937年美国国家资源委员会发布的首次政府技术预测，评估其13项重大创新预测的准确性，并从中提炼出对当今技术预测和决策的五个启示。
The first comprehensive forecast of technological trends and social implications by the U.S. government was published by the National Resources Committee in 1937. It focused on 13 major innovations. In their article, Steven Schnaars, Swee Chia and Cesar Maloles examine the accuracy of those forecasts and draw some conclusions based on their review of that report.