An Exploratory Analysis of the Occurrence of Explosive Volcanism in the Northern Hemisphere, 1851-1985
本文分析了1851-1985年北半球爆炸性火山喷发记录，用非平稳泊松过程建模，发现火山活动频率变化可部分解释同期温度波动。
Abstract Abstract Studies of regional climate following volcanic eruptions suggest that explosive volcanism exerts a short-term cooling effect. To understand the effects of explosive volcanism on historic temperatures, it is necessary to identify changes through time in the frequency of explosive eruptions. This article presents an exploratory analysis of a record of explosive eruptions in the Northern Hemisphere over the period 1851–1985. This record is modeled as a nonstationary Poisson process and the intensity function is estimated by kernel smoothing. Approximate confidence bands are constructed and diagnostics for checking the Poisson assumption are described. A comparison with a record of Northern Hemisphere temperatures indicates that part of the variability in temperature can be explained by variations in explosive volcanic activity. Key Words: BootstrapKernel estimationNonstationary Poisson process