Complementary Modelling Approaches for Analysing Several Effects of Privatization on Electricity Investment
本文使用大规模长期容量规划模型（优化和系统动力学），分析英国电力私有化后投资转向低资本密集型技术的原因，并探讨模型方法如何适应私有化环境。
AbstractThrough the impacts of higher required rates of return, debt, taxation changes and a new competitive structure for the industry, investment in electricity generating capacity has taken a shift to less capital-intensive technologies in the UK. This paper reports on the use of large-scale, long-term capacity planning models, of both an optimization and system dynamics nature, to reflect these separate factors, investigate their sensitivities and to generate future scenarios for the investment in the industry. Some new policy implications for the regulation of the industry become apparent, but the main focus of the paper is to develop some of the methodological changes required by the planning models to suit the privatized context.Keywords: Electricity CapacityCapital InvestmentLarge-Scale Mathematical ProgrammingSystem DynamicsLoss-of-Load ProbabilityCompetitionSimulation