部分模糊性

Partial Ambiguity

Econometrica · 2017
被引 65
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

通过限制一副红黑牌中红牌的可能组成,提出三种对称的部分模糊性形式,实验发现人们对这三种模糊性的态度不同,且与复合风险态度相关。

Abstract

We extend Ellsberg's two-urn paradox and propose three symmetric forms of partial ambiguity by limiting the possible compositions in a deck of 100 red and black cards in three ways. Interval ambiguity involves a symmetric range of 50 − n to 50 + n red cards. Complementarily, disjoint ambiguity arises from two nonintersecting intervals of 0 to n and 100 − n to 100 red cards. Two-point ambiguity involves n or 100 − n red cards. We investigate experimentally attitudes towards partial ambiguity and the corresponding compound lotteries in which the possible compositions are drawn with equal objective probabilities. This yields three key findings: distinct attitudes towards the three forms of partial ambiguity, significant association across attitudes towards partial ambiguity and compound risk, and source preference between two-point ambiguity and two-point compound risk. Our findings help discriminate among models of ambiguity in the literature.

部分模糊埃尔斯伯格悖论复合彩票模糊态度