Are Americans Saving “Optimally” for Retirement?
用生命周期模型模拟每个家庭的最优储蓄决策，并与1992年全美代表性样本的实际财富对比，发现模型能解释80%以上的财富差异，仅不到20%的家庭储蓄不足且缺口较小。
We solve each household's optimal saving decisions using a life cycle model that incorporates uncertain lifetimes, uninsurable earnings and medical expenses, progressive taxation, government transfers, and pension and social security benefits. With optimal decision rules, we compare, household by household, wealth predictions from the life cycle model using a nationally representative sample. We find, making use of household-specific earnings histories, that the model accounts for more than 80 percent of the 1992 cross-sectional variation in wealth. Fewer than 20 percent of households have less wealth than their optimal targets, and the wealth deficit of those who are undersaving is generally small.