The Labor Market and Illegal Immigration: The Outlook for the 1980s
本文预测1980年代美国劳动力市场将出现非熟练工人短缺，并分析非法移民流入对不同群体（如熟练工人、资本所有者及国内非熟练工人）的差异化影响。
This paper first develops a labor supply forecas t for th e U .S. labor m a rk et in the 1980s, focus ing on th e effects of the low fertility ra tes of recent years, a nd then compares th at forecas t with the BLS projec ti o n o f emp lo yment demand in th e n ext decade.The author a ttempts to iso late th ose occupatio ns a nd age-sex groups tha t a re likely to have a sh ortfa ll o f workers a nd to match th e characteristics o f those sh o rtage ca tegories wi th the d em ograp hic ch arac teri stics of th e ill ega l a li en work force.H e pred icts a rf' la ti ve sh o rtage of un skill ed work ers in th e 1980s , a major departure fro m past trends, a nd suggests that an increased flow of immig rants to m ee t th at shortage would benefit skill ed o lder workers a nd , to a lesser extent, th e owners of capital.H e also argues, how ever, th a t increased immigra tion would h a rm domesti c unskilled workers-who a re in creasingly minority group m embers-by low ering their rel ative in com e a nd raising their equilibrium un employment rates.