Expectations Models of Asset Prices: A Survey of Theory
梳理了资产价格预期模型（如鞅模型、利率期限结构预期假说、不可再生资源与期货市场模型）成立所需的前提条件，指出这些条件与风险中性假设有关但具体形式各异，对理解资产定价理论的基础有帮助。
This paper identifies restrictions on preferences under which various classes of “expectations” theories of asset prices—i.e., uncertainty models of asset prices which coincide with the corresponding certainty theory except that expected future prices replace actual future prices—are valid. Major classes of expectations models surveyed are martingale models, the expectations hypothesis of the term structure of interest rates, and models of exhaustible resources and futures markets. In each case the required restriction is related to the assumptiono f risk—neutrality, but the precise nature of the required restriction is shown to differ significantly among the various classes of expectations theories.