Inflation and Asset Returns in a Monetary Economy
用均衡货币资产定价模型解释了美国战后数据中股票实际回报与通胀负相关、与货币增长正相关的现象,并分析了不同通胀来源对相关性的影响。
ABSTRACT Postwar U.S. data are characterized by negative correlations between real equity returns and inflation and by positive correlations between real equity returns and money growth. These patterns are closely matched quantitatively by an equilibrium monetary asset pricing model. The model also implies negative correlations between expected asset returns and expected inflation, and it predicts that the inflation‐asset return correlation will be more strongly negative when inflation is generated by fluctuations in real economic activity than when it is generated by monetary fluctuations.