Saving Transitions
采用跨国比较方法识别储蓄转型（储蓄率持续提高至少5个百分点），研究其决定因素并重新检验增长与储蓄的因果关系，发现储蓄转型未必带来持续增长，而增长转型却会永久提高储蓄率。
This article takes a systematic cross-national approach to identifying saving transitions— defined as sustained increases in the saving rate of 5 percentage points or more—to study their determinants and to reexamine the question of causality between growth and saving. Countries that undergo saving transitions do not necessarily experience sustained increases in their growth rates. In fact, growth rates typically return to their levels before the transition within a decade. By contrast, countries that undergo growth transitions—arising from improved terms of trade, increased domestic investment, or other sources—do end up with permanently higher saving rates. Hence saving transitions do not appear to be causal with respect to superior economic performance.