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通胀水平与不确定性:来自OECD预测的结果

The level and uncertainty of inflation: results from OECD forecasts

Economic Inquiry · 2000
被引 20
人大 BABS 3

中文导读

研究通胀水平与不确定性之间的关系,使用OECD通胀预测的平方预测误差衡量不确定性,发现多数国家两者之间并无显著正相关。

Abstract

There is considerable evidence that inflation variability and the level of inflation are positively related across countries. Evidence of a within-country relation is mixed. Evidence for a significant positive relation comes mostly from studies using some survey measure; contrary evidence comes mostly from studies using regression errors. Our measure of uncertainty is the squared forecast-error from Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development inflation forecasts. Most countries do not exhibit a positive and significant relation. The greatest number of positive coefficients is for relative uncertainty regressed on contemporaneous inflation.

通货膨胀宏观经济预测不确定性OECD