THE USE OF EXPLORATORY TUNNELS AS A TOOL FOR SCHEDULING AND COST ESTIMATION
研究了如何利用勘探隧道的数据来估算整个隧道项目的成本和工期，基于奥地利铁路隧道案例，用蒙特卡洛模拟预测项目结果及其概率。
Exploratory tunnels are commonly used for examining the geotechnical and structural aspects of proposed tunnel alignments. This paper explores the utilisation of exploratory tunnels as a project management tool for estimating the cost and duration of construction for the entire project. Data were collected from the Kaponig 2,75 kilometers exploratory tunnel, a part of a double‐track high‐speed railway development in Austria. This knowledge and experience was used to evaluate the risks associated with design details for the final tunnel enlargement (alignment and grade, support requirements and excavation methods). A deterministic model based on Monte Carlo simulation was developed capable of predicting potential outcomes of the total project in terms of cost, duration and their associated probabilities.