The Impact of Electronic Commerce Assurance on Financial Analysts' Earnings Forecasts and Stock Price Estimates (Retracted)
通过调查和实验，研究了电子商务鉴证如何影响分析师对高风险电商企业的盈利预测和股价估计，发现鉴证在高风险时显著提升预测值。
The objective of this study is to assess the impact of electronic commerce (EC) assurance on earnings forecasts and stock price estimates of financial analysts. The theoretical foundation of the current study is based on the information hypothesis (Fama and Laffer 1971; Wallace 1980), which supports the notion that EC assurance is a means of reducing information asymmetry and uncertainty for financial market participants. In the first phase of this study, a survey of 37 financial analysts indicates the importance of vendor- and outcome-based risk factors when forecasting the financial performance of firms engaged in EC. In the second phase, 87 analysts participate in a 2(high and low vendor-based risk)×2(high and low outcome-based risk) experiment. As hypothesized, EC assurance significantly increases earnings forecasts and stock price estimates in the high-risk, as compared to the low-risk, condition. In addition, a significant interaction term is obtained such that EC assurance yields a pronounced impact when both vendor- and outcome-based risks are high. The findings suggest that EC assurance reduces risk for market participants, thereby generating higher expectations of firm performance and value.