贝叶斯说服

Bayesian Persuasion

American Economic Review · 2011
被引 1775 · 同刊同年前 1%
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

研究一个人如何通过设计信息信号来说服另一个人改变行动,给出了信号存在且对发送者有利的充要条件,并分析了偏好一致程度的影响,适用于律师、游说者和销售人员的说服场景。

Abstract

When is it possible for one person to persuade another to change her action? We consider a symmetric information model where a sender chooses a signal to reveal to a receiver, who then takes a noncontractible action that affects the welfare of both players. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for the existence of a signal that strictly benefits the sender. We characterize sender-optimal signals. We examine comparative statics with respect to the alignment of the sender's and the receiver's preferences. Finally, we apply our results to persuasion by litigators, lobbyists, and salespeople.

贝叶斯劝说信号设计偏好对齐说服博弈