Ex‐ante agricultural research evaluation with site specific technology generation: the case of sorghum in Kenya
提出一种动态空间多市场模型，用于评估农业研究的事前效益，并以肯尼亚高粱为例，发现研究效益因目标区域而异，且人口增长对市场的影响大于技术发展。
Abstract Agricultural commodity research has very site‐specific productivity impacts. Crucial determinants of the magnitude and distribution of research benefits include agroecological conditions for technology generation and adoption, as well as commodity market‐structure. This paper presents a process for ex‐ante research evaluation which accounts for these factors with a dynamic, spatial multi‐market model. Simulation results based on sorghum research in Kenya demonstrate that potential research benefits can vary dramatically research program research target zones. In Kenya, however, population‐induced demand growth not technological development will have the greatest influence on future sorghum markets.